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Household trip production is not a constant parameter and vary based on socio-economic characteristics. Even households in each category (households with constant socio-economic characteristics) produce several numbers of trips. Purpose of present study is to model the variation of household trip production rate in urban societies. In order to do this, concept of the Bayesian Inference has been used. The city of Isfahan was selected as case study. First, likelihood distribution function was determined for number of household trips, separating odd and even trips. In order to increase precision of the function, the composed likelihood distribution function was utilized. To insert households’ socio-economic variables in the process, disaggregate 2 calibrated model were used at the likelihood distribution function. Statistical indices and 2 test show that likelihood distribution function of numbers of household trip production follows the Poisson distribution. The final composed likelihood distribution was determined based on Bayesian inference. Related function was created with compilation of mean parameter distribution function (Gamma distribution) and numbers of household trip production (Poisson distribution). Finally, disaggregate model was put at final composed probability function instead of mean parameter. Results show that with Bayesian inference method, it would be possible to model the variation of household trip production rate in urban societies. Also it would be possible to put socio-economic characteristics in the model to predict likelihood of real produced trips (not average produced trips) for each household's category.

Keywords: test, composed likelihood distribution function, even trips, odd trips, Poisson discrete distribution function.

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