Showing 1 results for T. Barforoushi
T. Barforoushi, M. P. Moghaddam, M. H. Javidi, M. K. Sheik-El-Eslami,
Volume 2, Issue 2 (April 2006)
Abstract
Medium-term modeling of electricity market has essential role in generation
expansion planning. On the other hand, uncertainties strongly affect modeling and
consequently, strategic analysis of generation firms in the medium term. Therefore, models
considering these uncertainties are highly required. Among uncertain variables considered
in the medium term generation planning, demand and hydro inflows are of the greatest
importance. This paper proposes a new approach for simulating the operation of power
market in medium-term, taking into account demand and hydro inflows uncertainties. The
demand uncertainty is considered using Monte-Carlo simulations. Standard Deviation over
Expected Profit (SDEP) of generation firms based on simulation results is introduced as a
new index for analyzing the influence of the demand uncertainty on the behavior of market
players. The correlation between capacity share of market players and their SDEP is also
demonstrated. The uncertainty of inflow as a stochastic variable is dealt using scenario tree
representation. Rational uncertainties as strategic behavior of generation firms, intending to
maximize their expected profit, is considered and Nash-Equilibrium is determined using the
Cournot model game. Market power mitigation effects through financial bilateral contracts
as well as demand elasticity are also investigated. Case studies confirm that this
representation of electricity market provides robust decisions and precise information about
electricity market for market players which can be used in the generation expansion
planning framework.
