Showing 3 results for Scenario
Abdollah Eshghi, Mehrdad Kargari,
Volume 29, Issue 1 (3-2018)
Abstract
In this paper a fraud detection method is proposed which user behaviors are modeled using two main components namely the un-normal trend analysis component and scenario based component. The extent of deviation of a transaction from his/her normal behavior is estimated using fuzzy membership functions. The results of applying all membership functions on a transaction will then be infused and a final risk is gained which is the basis for decision making in order to block the arrived transaction or not. An optimized threshold for the value of the final risk is estimated in order to make a balance between the fraud detection rate and alarm rate. Although the assessment of such problems are complicated, we show that this method can be useful in application according to several measures and metrics.
Hadi Mokhtari, Ali Salmasnia, Ali Fallahi,
Volume 33, Issue 1 (3-2022)
Abstract
This paper designs a Scenario analysis approach to determine the joint production policy for two products under possible substitution. The Scenario analysis is designed to improve decision making by considering possible outcomes and their implications. The traditional multi-products production models assume that there is no possible substitution between products. However, in real-world cases, there are many substitutable products where substitution may occur in the event of a product stock-out. The proposed model optimizes production quantities for two products under substitution with the aim of minimizing the total cost of inventory system, including setup and holding costs, subject to a resource constraint. To analyze the problem, four special Scenarios are derived and discussed in detail. Furthermore, the total cost functions are derived for each Scenario separately, and then a solution procedure is suggested based on the Scenarios developed. The numerical examples are implemented, and the results are discussed in detail.
Mariam Ameli, Somayeh Sadeghi,
Volume 33, Issue 2 (6-2022)
Abstract
To respond to the urgent call for preventive action against COVID-19 pandemic implications for societies, this research is carried out. The main aim of our research is providing a new insight for the effects of the newly emerged restrictions by COVID-19 on the SD Goals (SDGs). This research applied a qualitative approach for supporting the SDGs achievement post-COVID in Iran, as a developing country in the Middle East, in two phases. In the first phase, using a fuzzy Delphi method, the SDGs affected by COVID-19 were identified. In the next phase, a fuzzy cognitive map, as a qualitative system dynamics modeling, was conducted to specify the key interconnections among the SDGs post COVID-19. Finally, three strategies including focus on people in vulnerable situation, support for industrial units and small and medium-sized enterprises, and national aggregation to Fight COVID-19 were examined. As a result, different scenarios associated with the three proposed strategies were tested based on the identified interconnections among the SDGs to reduce the potential negative effects of COVID-19 crisis on the achievement of the SDGs. The results provide a decision support for stakeholders and policy makers involved in SD action plan.
