Showing 16 results for Uncertainty
K. Shahanaghi, V.r. Ghezavati,
Volume 19, Issue 4 (12-2008)
Abstract
In this paper, we present the stochastic version of Maximal Covering Location Problem which optimizes both location and allocation decisions, concurrently. It’s assumed that traveling time between customers and distribution centers (DCs) is uncertain and described by normal distribution function and if this time is less than coverage time, the customer can be allocated to DC. In classical models, traveling time between customers and facilities is assumed to be in a deterministic way and a customer is assumed to be covered completely if located within the critical coverage of the facility and not covered at all outside of the critical coverage. Indeed, solutions obtained are so sensitive to the determined traveling time. Therefore, we consider covering or not covering for customers in a probabilistic way and not certain which yields more flexibility and practicability for results and model. Considering this assumption, we maximize the total expected demand which is covered. To solve such a stochastic nonlinear model efficiently, simulation and genetic algorithm are integrated to produce a hybrid intelligent algorithm. Finally, some numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.
A.d. Akbari, M. Osanloo , M.a. Shirazi ,
Volume 19, Issue 5 (7-2008)
Abstract
Planning and design procedure of an open pit mining project just can be started after ultimate pit determination. In the carried out study in this paper it was shown that the most important factor in ultimate pit determination and in consequence in the whole planning and design procedure of an open pit mine is the metal price. Metal price fluctuations in recent years were exaggerated and imposed a high degree of uncertainty to the mine planning procedure while none of the existent algorithms of the pit limit determination consider the metal price uncertainty. Real Option Approach (ROA) is an efficient method of decision making in the condition of uncertainty. This approach usually used for evaluation of defined natural resources projects up to now. This study considering the metal price uncertainty used real option approach to prepare a methodology for determining the Ultimate Pit Limits (UPL). The study was carried out on a non-ferrous metallic cylindrical ore deposit but the achieved methodology can be adjusted for all kinds of the deposits. The achieved methodology was comprehensively described through the examples in a way that can be used by the mine planners.
S. G. Jalali Naini , M. B. Aryanezhad, A. Jabbarzadeh , H. Babaei ,
Volume 20, Issue 3 (9-2009)
Abstract
This paper studies a maintenance policy for a system composed of two components, which are subject to continuous deterioration and consequently stochastic failure. The failure of each component results in the failure of the system. The components are inspected periodically and their deterioration degrees are monitored. The components can be maintained using different maintenance actions (repair or replacement) with different costs. Using stochastic regenerative properties of the system, a stochastic model is developed in order to analyze the deterioration process and a novel approach is presented that simultaneously determines the time between two successive inspection periods and the appropriate maintenance action for each of the components based on the observed degrees of deterioration. This approach considers different criteria like reliability and long-run expected cost of the system. A numerical example is provided in order to illustrate the implementation of the proposed approach.
B. Moradi, H. Shakeri, S. Namdarzangeneh,
Volume 23, Issue 1 (3-2012)
Abstract
Until now single values of IRR are traditionally used to estimate the time value of cash flows. Since uncertainty exists in estimating cost data, the resulting decision may not be reliable. The most commonly cited drawbacks to using the internal rate of return in evaluatton of deterministic cash flow streams is the possibility of multiple conflicting internal rates of return. In this paper we present a fuzzy methodology for solving problems of multiple IRR in any type of streams. Utilization of fuzzy cash flow allows modeling of uncertainty in estimating cost data. The approach of