In the present study, the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique is employed to estimate the drying shrinkage of concrete. To this purpose, a very big database (RILEM Data Bank) from different experimental studies is used. Several effective parameters such as the age of onset of shrinkage measurement, age at start of drying, the ratio of the volume of the sample on its drying surface, relative humidity, cement content, the ratio between water and cement contents, the ratio of sand on total aggregate, average compressive strength at 28 days, and modulus of elasticity at 28 days are included in the developing process of MARS model. The performance of MARS model is compared with several codes of practice including ACI, B3, CEB MC90-99, and GL2000. The results confirmed the superior capability of developed MARS model over existing design codes. Furthermore, the robustness of the developed model is also verified through sensitivity and parametric analyses.

Keywords: prediction, drying shrinkage, concrete, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS).

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